Faltering Lib Dems

Christmas 2006 has not been a good one for the Liberal Democrats. This week they have scored 15% and 14% in the polls, which when entered into Electoral Calculus gives the Lib Dems just 6 seats.

Added to this is the defection of three Lib Dem PPCs at the 2005 General Election to the Conservatives.

These show the Lib Dems need to act if they are to even hold their seats at a General Election, let alone make any gains.

Now I don’t believe they will be reduced to as little as 6 seats, but the question has to be asked of the leadership and the direction the Lib Dems are heading. It has been well publicised that they are planning for a snap election to be called, yet Campbell just doesn’t seem up to the challenge.

I think the Lib Dems made a mistake when they elected Campbell as their leader, as at a time when Labour and the Conservatives have relatively young leaders in Blair (soon to be Brown) and Cameron, the Lib Dems went the other way and chose an older leader. For me, Campbell just doesn’t fit in with this age of politics. To win votes the leader of a party needs charisma and to come across well on TV. Campbell just doesn’t have this which is being reflected in the polls and through the defections that have occurred.

So could Campbell serve a shorter term as leader of the Lib Dems than Duncan Smith did as leader of the Conservatives. This would require Campbell going before May 2008 (Duncan Smith served two years, two months). Of course this would depend on any General Election and its result occurring during this period. But let’s take it there is no General Election as was the case with Duncan Smith. I can’t see the party ousting Campbell within this time, even if things look bad for any upcoming General Election. There’s two reasons for this. The first being the level of support Campbell has from fellow Lib Dem MPs. After the way Kennedy was removed, it would take someone very brave to try and remove Campbell in the same way. The other reason is that the Lib Dem MPs would have to admit they got it wrong backing Campbell as their leader. As we know, it takes a lot for MPs to admit they were wrong.

So for the Lib Dems the new year does look bleak. It will take something for Campbell to turn his party around for the election that could be not far away. I just don’t think he can do it.