Saturday, September 30, 2006

Clean up politics?

After David Cameron’s call to clean up politics yesterday it is interesting to read today that businessmen have been invited to join the Conservatives’ Leader’s Club. The club has three levels of subscription from £10’000 to £50’000. The higher the level of donation the more access you can have to Cameron.


The Conservatives’ have justified the club by saying it is completely transparent and Labour has something similar.


Evidently when Cameron made the call to clean up politics he wasn’t referring to rich businessmen buying influence at the top of the political ladder.

Webcameron

Cameron’s attempts to reach the younger voters have reached a new level today with the launch of WEBCAMERON.


The idea being to provide a “behind the scenes” look at David Cameron, allowing people to get to know Cameron and what he stands for.


The idea is all well and good but I’m doubtful it’s anything more than a publicity stunt despite Cameron’s denials. I can’t see that considering all the things the leader of the Opposition has to do, Cameron will be doing films for his weblog. I stand to be corrected.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Labour Party conference

I have to admit I wasn’t able to follow the Labour Party conference in as much detail as I would have liked.


However from what I have seen I get the impression that the conference didn’t really change anything.. We’re still no closer to knowing when Blair will go or who will replace him. Without Cherie’s outburst the conference would have been quite boring!


Both Blair and Brown gave the kind of speech you would expect of them. Blair set out where he still wants the Labour Party to go and turned his speech into a rallying call in the way only Blair knows how. Brown knowing he needs to show people more about his personal side, did exactly that. He focused on his past and where he came from using that to show where he would take Labour.


Alan Johnson appears to have had his David Davis moment with a poor performance on the conference stage. The charisma was certainly lacking on that day. John Reid on the other hand gave a very good speech in typical Reid style. Unlike Brown, he stuck to home affairs but managed to nicely link these with wider issues. This has meant Reid is now second favourite with the bookies to be the next Labour leader.


So despite the conference not really changing much, it did give the impression quite successfully of a united Labour and Blair’s lifting speech will certainly hit a cord with the voters.


Conference score 8/10


UPDATE (Sat 31st): The YouGov poll in today’s Telegraph carried out shortly after Blair’s speech puts the Tories on 36%, Labour on 36% and the Lib Dems on 16%. This is what I would expect a party conference to do to the polls, hence my previous post saying the Lib Dems should be worried. I await the poll after the Tory conference.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Cherie's big mouth!

So Cherie Blair is being reported by Bloomberg as branding Gordon Brown a liar!


“Cherie Blair left the conference hall with her security detail as Brown was speaking to the Labour Party conference in Manchester, England today. As she walked through a display area outside the auditorium, Brown was on television monitors, extolling the strength and achievements of his political relationship with Blair. ``Well, that's a lie,'' she said, apparently unaware that she was within earshot of a Bloomberg News journalist.” (Read the full article here)


Of course Cherie and Downing Street are denying these claims. However there are two reasons that make me believe this story.


The first is Cherie’s attitude. The fact she walked out in the middle of Brown’s speech is enough to suggest she would make a comment like this, without the history she has regarding comments made about MPs in the past.


The second is Bloomberg’s strong refusal to retract the story. This suggests they are confident of the truth behind their story. (Of course if they didn’t they would have to brand their own reporter a liar!)


I guess this is just one of those situations where no one will be able to prove what was or wasn’t said. You will just have to make up your own minds who you believe! I’ll leave it at that…

Sunday, September 24, 2006

YouGov Poll

Now I don’t normally take too much notice of opinion polls for many reasons to do with their accuracy but one thing about the latest one from YouGov in the Sunday Times caught my eye (View it here on ConservativeHome). Not because of the Tories dropping 1% or Labour increasing 2% but because the Lib Dem’s didn’t move.


The poll was conducted on the 21st and 22nd of September right at the end of the Lib Dem conference, which was a pretty good one for them. A week when they had a fair amount of press coverage has made no difference to their polling.


This means I’ll now have to look at the polls at the end of the Labour and Conservative conferences to see if their conferences make any difference to the polls.

Saturday, September 23, 2006

2007 General Election?

Could there be a General Election in 2007? (A very simplified version of what needs to happen!)


Technically the answer is yes. The PM has the power to call a General Election whenever they want. But what’s the likelihood of one being called in 2007, only two years after the last one? There are two crucial factors that have to play out in order for this to happen.


The first factor is the timing of Blair’s departure, as Blair is not going to call an election before he stands down, which we know will be before this time next year. So it will be down to his predecessor to chose the timing of the next election. From when Blair steps down it is likely to take two months for Labour to elect a new leader and they are likely to want a couple of months to settle in as PM before calling an election. There is then four weeks of campaigning before the election is held. This in total is five months, so Blair has to be out between now and July for there to be a possibility of a 2007 General Election.


If that happens the second factor of Blair’s replacement comes in. The favourite is Gordon Brown who is much more likely to want an election. The reason for this? To give himself a fresh mandate to govern, meaning he isn’t relying on Blair’s. However should a Blairite candidate win, they will be happy to govern on Blair’s mandate, meaning no election.


So what’s the likelihood? I will be amazed if Blair makes it even as long as next July, so factor one should be passed. Brown is by far the favourite to replace Blair and even though I think any leadership contest will be close I feel Brown will win. Therefore a General Election in 2007 looks quite possible.


You’ve all been warned!

Friday, September 22, 2006

Lib Dem party conference

It had the potential to undermine Sir Menzies Campbell and send the Lib Dem’s back 16 years but in the end it was just a party conference.


First of all there was the vote on the Lib Dem’s tax proposal, the “Green Tax Switch”. Dropping the 50p top rate of tax in favour of abolishing the 10p lower rate of tax, taking 2p off the basic rate, increasing the amount the top rate is paid to £50’000 and instead raising revenue through ‘green taxes’ and cutting reliefs on capital gains tax and pension contributions. (That was the shortest I could outline it in, so good luck to Lib Dem campaigners!) At conference an amendment was proposed to introduce a 50p rate on incomes over £150’000. It was believed there was a good chance it could pass. However it didn’t, it was defeated by a comfortable majority and the motion pass by a clear majority.


The tax debate though has done the Lib Dem’s no harm whatsoever. In fact they should come out of it as a more mature and stronger party. Even those who were behind the amendment are sure to believe that.


Second came Charles Kennedy’s speech. Would he use it to signal out his intention to once again become leader of the Lib Dem’s? Or worst still, to attack Ming? The answer was neither, it was a typical ex-leader speech. Enough said.


Thirdly came Sir Campbell’s speech. His first one as leader at an autumn conference. This turned out to be the worst of the three and this was the only one Ming could control! He started off well enough, the entrance was good and he began his speech well. But it was all downhill from there. Clearly too reliant on the auto-cue you could see times when he attempted to switch cues but had to quickly go back due to losing his place. Towards the middle the speech began to lose its momentum and never recovered. Ming didn’t even attempt to make the step out from behind the speakers box looked smooth, clearly the auto-cue read “step out from behind speakers box” and so he did! I was expecting a big powerful finish to really get the delegates going but it never came. But the one thing that really got me was his arms. What was he doing! After finishing his speech he kept raising them up above his head as if he had just won the 100m. Sorry Ming you’re not doing that anymore! For someone who says he isn’t concerned about appearing youthful, he certainly is trying hard to do just that.


Overall though the conference I feel was a good one for the Lib Dem’s. The tax debate went well, Kennedy didn’t bring them all down and despite my negativity towards Ming’s speech it was by no means dreadful. What’s important is that they build from this and don’t let it all slip away.


Conference score 6/10

Good old Clare short!

I like it when an MP speaks their mind. Why shouldn’t they? The number one priority of an MP should be to represent their constituents and the country’s best interest. Something which in our party system disappeared long ago (if it ever existed).


Clare Short has always been outspoken although she has never called for members of her own party to lose their seats (read it here). Although why shouldn’t she if that is what she truly believes is for the better of this country? Short is not a member of the Cabinet and therefore not bound by Collective Responsibility. I’m sure we all have people at work we believe shouldn’t be there, why should MPs be any different?

Johnson for leader...?

Alan Johnson the current Education Secretary is looking more and more likely to put himself forward as a challenger to Brown to take over after Blair steps down. He has repeatedly refused to rule himself out of standing when asked.


The question is, can he gain enough support to make a stand against Brown worthwhile? Johnson does appeal to many of the left as well as the right. He’s charismatic with a style close to that of Cameron, which the public has made clear they prefer. Could he put himself forward as a compromise candidate who can bring together the left and right?


I still think Brown is the clear favourite but let’s forget the Conservative leadership election where Davis appeared to be the clear favourite until a poor conference speech. Brown only needs something similar to happen to him and all could be different.

Saturday, September 09, 2006

A letter, resignations, a speech and that smile...

What a week!!


So after a letter signed by Labour MPs, eight resignations from junior members of the Government and a row with Gordon Brown, Blair has finally been forced to do what he hoped not to, provide a public timetable as to when he will stand down.


In a speech given at a college he has said he will stand down within twelve months. (The students booed and chanted him but then what did he expect from an audience where half the pupils were from the Middle East!)


He did not provide any details, only that he would not be the leader at the next party conference. Rumours are that he will announce further details in January and step down next May, three days after the elections. This will mean he would have served ten years as PM. (If he holds on till then, I’ll be impressed if he does.)

Those who sent the letter and resigned are all backers of Brown which has led some to suggest Brown is behind this soap opera. What is clear is that Brown could have prevented this from happening. The fact he didn’t seems to of damaged his own reputation as well as that of the PM. Of course, that now infamous smile as he left Downing Street means a lot of Labour MPs and supporters are wondering if he is the right person to take over when the PM does go.


Every MP is giving their view on the current crisis in the Labour Party and, for once Ministers do not seem to know how to answer questions related to the last few days. The once very well orchestrated and organised Government (when it came to the media) has fallen apart. I do wonder though if that is what we’re suppose to believe? The headline on the front page of the Sun saying Blair to step down by 31st May was certainly leaked by Downing street, so perhaps there is some media co-ordination still in place behind all this.


Charles Clarke’s intervention in the whole fiasco certainly brings further intrigue if there wasn’t enough already. We know he isn’t exactly best friends with the PM (after being sacked as Home Sec retary)and he has made it quite clear that he is no fan of Brown to become the next leader. So what is he trying to do? He hasn’t ruled out standing as a candidate himself. So could he be positioning himself as a compromise candidate? Answers on a postcard…Or in the comments section will be fine.


Blair of course is trying to divert attention away from himself and his position back onto policy and the country. Sorry Blair, but I don’t think anyone is really listening. The Labour Party conference is certainly going to be fun, even though I’m not going.


Of course Brown may of done Blair an inadvertent favour. The party has now seen the mess that is created when the leadership issue is fought in public. The only ones to be damaged are those at the centre (Blair and Brown) and the Labour Party itself. This may mean Brown will back off to further avoid the public being turned off to Labour. We all know the result a divided party gets when it comes to an election, don’t we Mr Major!


More to follow I’m sure….

Sunday, September 03, 2006

The speculation continues...

The speculation over when the PM will stand down continues in the Sunday papers with MP’s in both the Blair and Brown camps fuelling the debate (read it here). Let’s face it though, the speculation over the PM’s departure is never going to end until the PM actually stands down. I suspect that even were he to name a date, the speculation would continue until that day came.


Blairite, Stephen Byers in the Sunday Telegraph has called on any potential leadership challenger to use this time to outline the direction they would take the Labour party and the policies they would introduce.

Another Blairite, Alan Milburn in the Sunday Times has also called for a debate to be held. He cites the transition from Thatcher to Major and the fact no debate took place then as the reasons behind his views.


Ed Balls, Treasury Minister, firm Brown supporter and who I believe will be the next Chancellor has stated Byers’ and Milburn’s call for a debate to be held on future policy as “absurd” in the Observer. He is quoted as saying "I do not believe the Conservative party can win the next election. But we must make sure we do not lose it.” So he appears to be suggesting that a policy debate will be divisive, which would be costly when the next election comes.


However this could be an attempt to avoid Brown having to spell out where he would take the Labour Party. Would he stick with new Labour reforms? Or take the party back to more old Labour ways? Perhaps Brown has his own “new Labour” type rebranding? Who knows, this is something that will need returning to.


Whatever the future it is quite clear that there (like always) is a split between those in the Blair and Brown camps. With the Blairites calling for a debate and the Brownites saying there is no need. I think the Blairites have the upper hand on this, as even if no official debate takes place, one is sure to happen via the media.

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Now come on North Korea...

Let’s get one thing straight from the beginning, I’m no fan of the current US administration and their foreign policy.


However North Korea’s accusation that the US has “threatened war” by testing a missile defence system (read it here) is somewhat hypocritical coming from a nation that has been regularly testing its own missiles for some time.


The statement released by North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland saying the missile test "was aimed at attacking us and intercepting our missiles," says to me only one thing. That North Korea has an intention to launch their missiles at the US and its allies. If it didn’t they wouldn’t be concerned with the US testing a defence system. In fact, it is accusations like this that back the US case for needing such systems.


Come on North Korea, what were you hoping, that the US would just let you carry on testing your own missiles and not do anything themselves. That would be like expecting Chelsea to stop buying all the good footballers because other teams don’t have their spending power!

Friday, September 01, 2006

Hoon slides in behind Brown

Using the information provided in Iain Dale’s blog on Geoff Hoon’s interview with GMTV on Sunday (read it here), Hoon has evidently decided now is the time to jump ship and pledge his support to Brown to take over when Blair steps down.


There may be two reasons for Geoff Hoon’s statement that Brown is “clearly ahead of any others who might consider standing” and his choice to back Brown.


The first being that Hoon’s demotion from Defence Secretary to Minister for Europe in the May 2006 reshuffle must have left him feeling very bitter towards the PM and therefore having no reason to keep his commitment to the PM and any candidate from the Blairite camp. (Who Blair is sure to hold a great deal of influence with).


The second being that Brown looks almost certain to become the next leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. Therefore if Hoon is to have any chance of being promoted, his allegiance needs to be in the right place.


I would not be surprised if a number of other Ministers do the same thing between now and when Blair steps down. After all it looks likely to be Brown who will be deciding the level they hold in Government and the size of their wage packets!


Guilty before your born!

The Prime Minister’s suggestion that menace children can be identified before they are born (read it here) sounds outrages, however I can see where he is coming from. The PM uses teenage mothers as his example, saying that mothers who are not in a stable relationship provide a “difficult set of circumstances” for their child to grow up in, making it more likely they will become a ”menace to society.”

I’m sure we all know what he is referring to and have witnessed the type of family for ourselves, but stating that a child growing up in these circumstances will become a menace, is to give a child a guilty title before they are born!

Surely what the PM should be saying is that help should be given to support these families and to indentify why they are in these circumstances in the first place. Not to take over their lives because they are. The very suggestion of sanctions for parents who refused to take advice, is a clear example of the Government’s desire to impose a nanny state.

Although credit should be given to the PM for his attempt to try and tackle the “causes of crime” which he promised to do all those years ago, even if he has gone over the top to do it.

I would expect what the PM has said to be presented in a different way or totally forgotten in coming weeks.

Finally, at last....

So here it is, my very own blog, RW's Commentary. Something I've been meaning to set up for a long time!

The aim is to provide my interpretation on current affairs in the UK. The next few years look set to provide an interesting time with Blair having stated he will not serve a fourth term and speculation mounting over when he will stand down. On top of this David Cameron’s apparent turnaround of the Conservative Party means the next General Election looks to have hung parliament written all over it.


This, along with everything that happens in between, should hopefully mean this blog will make good reading by providing a non-party aligned analysis of current affairs presented in a lighthearted and informal manner, such is the nature of blogging.

Right enough of the introduction, time to get posting!