Lord Levy arrested again

So Lord Levy has been arrested again and later released on bail. The interesting thing is he, like Ruth Turner, was arrested for perverting the course of justice.

Now I’m no expert, but in order to pervert the course of justice, wouldn’t you actually have to be worried the police might find something?

However it would appear that with the way the investigation is going, no one is going to be charged under the original Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925. Otherwise why are the police arresting people for preventing the course of justice. Perhaps they are trying to make up for the fact they haven’t found anything?

Evidence of Blair link in Cash for Honours?

The Sunday Telegraph today is reporting detectives have found a hand written note from Tony Blair linking him directly into the Cash for Honours scandal.

Downing Street is of course denying any such document exists.

I still don’t think the PM will be charged, would be interesting if he was required to be a witness against the likes of Lord Levy and Ruth Turner though.

Week of blunders for Home Office

John Reid must be regretting the day he said the Home Office “isn’t fit for purpose” and attacked the Judge in the Craig Sweeney case for being too lenient. The Home Office hasn’t been out of the news for the last two weeks due to blunder after blunder being reported and now Reid has had to right to Judges, asking them to be more lenient.

What a way to land yourself in it. Gordon Brown must be loving this from a leadership point of view.

Future Olympic fiasco

Could the Olympics be an absolute disaster for this country? If there is one country that could manage to get it horribly wrong, it’s bound to be this one.

The Select Committee on Culture Media and Sport is to issue a very critical report over the handling of the Olympic project’s finances and the project is still in its early days. Plenty of time for things to get far worse yet!

Hiding behind terrorism

It seems the Government and it’s loyal MPs will use terrorism however they can, if it can be useful to them. One could be forgiven for thinking they actually want the terrorist attacks to continue, so they can continue to hide behind it.

Personal beliefs and Government

Can a Minister who believes homosexuality is a sin, really promote equal rights? It appears the answer has been made clear today. Ruth Kelly, the Minister responsible for equal rights, is pushing for an opt-out for Catholic adoption agencies, so they wouldn’t have to allow gay couples to adopt from their agencies. So much for equal rights.

The fact that if Ruth Kelly fails to get an opt-out, she will have to lead a debate promoting something she doesn’t believe in and her own religion denounces, could be interesting.

Blair can't face Iraq debate

So our wonderful Prime Minister who took us into the Iraq War, isn’t prepared to face the debate over how badly it’s going. How typical of our PM. Makes a decision and isn’t prepared to face the consiquences.

Split the Home Office

So John Reid wants to split the Home Office in two. One part responsible for justice and the other for public protection.

It’s always interesting when a Minister says they want to get rid of their own department. Reid clearly knows he won’t be Home Secretary once Brown takes over. Hence the split coming within months, Reid needs to move quickly if he is to the Home Secretary who made this dramatic change to the structure of Government and the Home Office. His own legacy if you like.

SNP and Trident

The SNP is proposal that should it be in power it will introduce a tax on Trident missiles which are brought into Scottish harbours.

They claim it could raise £85m a year. But of course that wouldn’t happen. Should ever such a tax be introduced, all the UK Government has to do is move our nuclear fleet from the Faslane Naval Base on the Clyde in Scotland, to somewhere in England, therefore avoiding the tax. This would lead to the Faslane Navel Base becoming obsolete, costing Scottish jobs. I’m sure the SNP wouldn’t be popular for that.

Ming Campbell's day?

Wednesday provides a good day for Ming Campbell to demostrate to the country and his own party that he is the right man to lead the Liberal Democrats. On that day is a full debate on the Iraq war, a subject which at the time, Campbell has been one of the best MPs in the House of Commons.

Can he turn back the clock and come out of Wednesday’s debate on top, like he has in the past? He certainly could do with it!

Labour Party corruption everywhere

It seems Labour just can't help themselves, particularly those who are backers of Blair's New Labour ideal.

This is from LabourHome.

"A Tribune investigation has discovered that party staff and Downing Street officials, have been breaking selection rules, in order to assist favoured candidates."

It seems to be Labour's answer to everything, if the rules get in the way, just break them, even if it's your own rules.

When it suites us...

Guido makes a good point here, over the response of some Labour MPs to the arrest of Ms Turner in the cash for honours enquiry.

They have chosen to comment on "an ongoing investigation" after maintaining for months it would be improper to comment. Then again, should we really be surprised that MPs change their minds depending on whether it suites them or not?

Watch out for killer adverts

This is footage from a match in Johannesburg, South Africa.



And we think we had strong winds.

I should add, the match was later abandoned due to a lightning storm, not the wind!!

Chancellor snubs his own Union celebration

Our glorious Chancellor, Gordon Brown, who only last week was praising the union between England and Scotland has snubbed his own party at No. 11 to celebrate the 300 years of the Act of Union.

Of course despite praising the union, there’s no press coverage in attending a party at No.11. There is however press coverage for travelling to India, espeically at the moment with the goings on in the BB house.

Eu constitution to be ressurrected

It seems Germany when it takes over the presidency of the EU wants to bring back the failed EU constituction.

Here we go again! Another chance for EU members to show they don’t get along with each other in reality.

The off button

Fianally an MP has made a statement about TV that actually resembles common sense.

David Cameron when asked about the racism in the Big Brother House has said there is "a great regulator called the off button". About time this was said.

Instead of complaining about something you don’t like on the tele, just don’t watch it. In this case unless Shilpa Shetty actually complains herself, I don’t think we should be worried. All those that are, there is plenty of other channels. It’s like when people complain about Friday Night with Johnathan Ross. You know what he’s like and his sense of humour, so if you don’t like it, don’t watch it. If enough people feel the same way, ratings will plummet and the show will be axed.

The fact Miss Shetty hasn’t complained says a lot. I believe she said upon entering the BB House she was there to increase her status in the UK. This must be fantastic for doing that. Front pages in the press and even raised in the House of Commons. Everyone knows who she is now.

I should add I haven’t actually seen the show.

UKIP will cost Conservatives

This is stating the obvious a bit but the Conservatives have warned that UKIP will cost them and help Labour.

This is hardly a surprise as UKIP is aiming to attract the anti Europe Conservative vote. Labour doesn’t have quite the same problems.

However UKIP could be a problem for the Conservatives at the next election, provided they don’t completely collaspe before then. Remember the Referendum Party in 1997?

Blair gets his own award

So Blair is to receive the Congressional Gold Medal of Honor later this year.

Now we all know why the UK was dragged into a war in Iraq. So Blair could be awarded this medal, move to the States and go on a tour of the US delivering speeches which will earn him millions. Nice to know the PM had the countries interests at heart the whole time and not his own future!

Well at least he will have the money to buy his own peerage!

A big hole

I find the Government’s line over the current Home Office scandle involving 27’500 unprocessed overseas criminals rediculous.

They keep saying the Home Office is doing all it can to identify those people who may have “slipped through the net”.

Well it must be a bloody big hole for 27’500 people to of slipped through. Quite worrying really. How many terrorists have “slipped through the net”?

Halifax scam?

During December Halifax were running a promotion for existing Halifax One credit card holders of 0% on balance transfers for 6 months.

Thinking this was quite a good offer I filled out the form and returned it to the Halifax 2 weeks before the deadline date for applications, to give them plenty of time as it said 5 days were needed to process the application.

But of course nothing happened. The balance from my other card wasn’t transferred and the deadline date ellasped.

I wasn’t too bothered really but then last week I got another letter from the Halifax offering 6.95% on balance transfers until the balance was paid off. Now call me a synic but at a rate of 0% the Halifax makes no money, yet at 6.95% it does. So surely it’s in the Halifax’s interest not to process applications under the first promotion in the hope customers will reapply under the second?

Of course I’ve no proof this is the case but it’s very convienient for the Halifax.

Do the Conservatives really want an early election?

It’s interesting the messages that are coming out from the Conservatives. They are calling for Labour to hold a proper leadership contest and for an early election to be called as the new leader has no mandate.

It’s simply because the Conservatives are calling for these two things that I don’t think they really want either.

A Labour leadership contest if carried out in the right way is sure to be good for the Labour Party and increase their poll ratings. An early General Election is more likely to suit Labour, one because it can be called off the back of this poll boost and secondly because they have a number of policies to present the electorate. The Conservatives currently have very few and will be forced to rush out policies should there be an early election.

So could the Conservatives current line purely be one to ensure no Labour leadership contest and no early election takes place because that is what the Conservatives appear to want? Clever planning if it is.

Major v Brown?

Is there a difference between when John Major took over as Prime Minister to then Gordon Brown takes over from Tony Blair?

I don’t really believe there is. When Thatcher was re-elected in 1987 the electorate voted for her as Prime Minister untill the next election, not for John Major to take over when she resigned. This will be the same when Tony Blair steps down and Gordon Brown takes over. Now Blair did say at the last election that he would serve a full term which is the argument David Cameron used today. But I think this is just a statement of what everyone was expecting anyway.

So does Brown have a mandate to carry on as Prime Minister? I think he does. Brown is an elected MP, who became leader of the party and the leader of the largest party in the House of Commons forms a Government. That’s the way it is, there’s nothing that requires Brown to hold an election so why should he, just like John Major chose not to.

Labour leadership contest?

The big question that is sure to be referred to almost every day until it’s decided is will there be a Labour leadership contest?

Today Stephen Byers (a Blairite) has warned Gordon Brown (although not by name) that Labour will not just follow his lead and "The Labour Party is not royalty and we don't go in for coronations.”

It doesn’t surprise me that an ally of Blair is making these warnings but does he have a point?

I think he does. A Labour leadership contest can only be good for the Labour Party, whereas a coronation for Brown will bring all sorts of difficulties. These will be set to one side should he win a fair leadership battle. It is clear from the Conservative leadership contest of the benefits it can bring to the party. Not to mention all the media coverage whilst it takes place.

It is for this reason that I’m slightly surprised by the line the Conservatives are taking. They are taunting Gordon Brown using the line “Labour only has a mandate for a full Blair term, anything else requires a General Election and they’ve stitched it up (the leadership) so there’s not even an election in his own party”.

Now attacking Brown over a General Election I agree with, however encouraging him to fight a leadership contest can only benefit the Labour Party. A bounce in the polls from which to call a General Election could lead to a new Labour Government. Whereas no leadership contest, a split Labour Party and a hostile media is sure to be play right into the Conservative’s hands.

Mike Smithson of PBC is offering £200 that “Gordon Brown will not get his coronation”

3 months overdue

The Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt has said the NHS is on track to break even within three months.

This is of course 3 months later than Ms Hewitt previously said the NHS would balance its books.

How is the £500m the NHS is currently over budget to be recovered? Through job cuts. It is claimed these cuts will be made in administration and not frontline doctors and nurses, we will see if this is the case. £500m is a lot of administrators.

Will he, won't he

The big question over the forthcoming Labour leadership race, will or won’t John Reid stand?

He is clearly testing the water, with speeches like the one today and other speeches which cover a much wider scope than his current Home Office portfolio.

I still think it is too early to tell John Reid’s true intentions. I think he wants to stand, but there are two problems. The first is can he beat Gordon Brown, which I’m not sure he can. The second is, he can’t appear to be making his pitch for the leadership until Blair announces a clear departure date. Otherwise he will appear to be undermining Blair’s leadership.

Belarus hits back

Following Belarus’ grudging acceptance of new gas prices set by Russia’s Gazprom , Belarus has hit back by putting large taxes on Russia oil pumped through Belarus’ pipe lines.

This clearly shows Russia’s influence over its former Soviet Union countries is dwindling. What it hoped would regain some of this influence, in this case at least, has clearly backfired.

Good for Belarus to stand up to its much bigger neighbour.

"The next general election and beyond"

Ming Campbell on the Today programme has defended his leadership of the Lib Dems confirming the fact the Lib Dems are in trouble.

Even though Campbell had the chance to spell out what he has done since becoming leader, the best he has managed is “restoring stability”. Hardly the best claim since it was him that brought the instability in the first place. This is a clear example that he hasn’t achieved much since taking over and infact the Lib Dems are going backwards.

He then went onto say “I will lead the party through this parliament, through the next general election and beyond”. Always a dangerous comment to make in my opinion. I still think he’ll make it through the year though.

Politicalbetting.com forecasting

Politicalbetting.com has its forecasting questions up for 2007.

Here are my predictions using pbc's questions:

On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister – Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition – David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats – Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party – Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer – Alastair Darling
6. President of France - Nicholas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Nichol Stephens
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination – Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination – John McCain

For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 160
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 151
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 100
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365

What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. - 4

What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 32
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 21
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 13

Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - +6
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - -1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - -11
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections - -300
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections - -45

EU grows to 27

One of the things the new year has brought is an increase in the size of the European Union to 27 with Bulgaria and Romania the latest additions.

When any new member state joins the EU the same question is always asked: How many will migrate to Britain?

Now with Bulgaria and Romania I don’t feel we face anything like the same situation when Poland joined. Bulgaria’s and Romania’s population combined isn’t as much as Poland’s. So the discussions over a new wave of mass immigration are unfounded. Besides the Government appears to of learnt from the previous time, by placing restrictions on migrant workers from the new countries.

However one thing that is interesting about the restrictions the Government has implemented is the admission of self employed workers. Any EU citizen is allowed to come to the UK to work, providing they are to work self employed, including those from Bulgaria and Romania.

Now I would of thought it would be much better for the UK if migrants were employed? That way under the PAYE system we know that taxes are being paid. If migrants are self employed how do we know they are even working? If they are working how do we know that their tax returns are being completed, and if they’re not, is it possible for the HMRC to find the workers. The HMRC isn’t exactly the most organised organisation anyway!