Sunday, December 31, 2006

Happy New Year

Happy New Year everyone. Lets hope it's a good one for us and an interesting one to blog about.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

Faltering Lib Dems

Christmas 2006 has not been a good one for the Liberal Democrats. This week they have scored 15% and 14% in the polls, which when entered into Electoral Calculus gives the Lib Dems just 6 seats.

Added to this is the defection of three Lib Dem PPCs at the 2005 General Election to the Conservatives.

These show the Lib Dems need to act if they are to even hold their seats at a General Election, let alone make any gains.

Now I don’t believe they will be reduced to as little as 6 seats, but the question has to be asked of the leadership and the direction the Lib Dems are heading. It has been well publicised that they are planning for a snap election to be called, yet Campbell just doesn’t seem up to the challenge.

I think the Lib Dems made a mistake when they elected Campbell as their leader, as at a time when Labour and the Conservatives have relatively young leaders in Blair (soon to be Brown) and Cameron, the Lib Dems went the other way and chose an older leader. For me, Campbell just doesn’t fit in with this age of politics. To win votes the leader of a party needs charisma and to come across well on TV. Campbell just doesn’t have this which is being reflected in the polls and through the defections that have occurred.

So could Campbell serve a shorter term as leader of the Lib Dems than Duncan Smith did as leader of the Conservatives. This would require Campbell going before May 2008 (Duncan Smith served two years, two months). Of course this would depend on any General Election and its result occurring during this period. But let’s take it there is no General Election as was the case with Duncan Smith. I can’t see the party ousting Campbell within this time, even if things look bad for any upcoming General Election. There’s two reasons for this. The first being the level of support Campbell has from fellow Lib Dem MPs. After the way Kennedy was removed, it would take someone very brave to try and remove Campbell in the same way. The other reason is that the Lib Dem MPs would have to admit they got it wrong backing Campbell as their leader. As we know, it takes a lot for MPs to admit they were wrong.

So for the Lib Dems the new year does look bleak. It will take something for Campbell to turn his party around for the election that could be not far away. I just don’t think he can do it.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

No solution, other than more money!

The Government has come up with a new solution for tackling anti-social behaviour. It’s going to through money at problem areas.

You would of thought that after the lack of improvement in education and the NHS, which the Government has thrown money at, it would of realised money isn’t the solution to everything.

Obviously it appears not. Local councils are bidding to become one of the forty new “respect areas”. The name itself tells you this is nothing more than another New Labour gimmick. What does a respect area mean? If you go to one you’re likely to receive no respect, perhaps?

Well I suppose it will be easy to recognise where not to go, by its “respect area” status!

New "cash for" enquiry?

It seems Labour is trying its best to ensure the Conservatives are brought under the “cash for” light of sleaze.


Several Conservative MPs, including Shadow Cabinet members, have been reported to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards over their use of House of Commons dining rooms by two Labour MPs.


The rules state that dining rooms cannot be used for "direct financial or material gain" by parties, sponsors, or any person or group.


Whether Conservative MPs have been breaking the rules or not will be for any inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner to decide. It will be interesting of course to find out if any similar activities have been undertaken by Labour MPs.


I very much doubt hiring out dining rooms raises as much cash as selling peerages though.

Sunday, December 24, 2006

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas everyone. Hope it's a good one for you all.

Too Tory for Jowell

Tess Jowell, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sports has vetoed both of the candidates for Chairman of English Heritage.

The nominations were Lord Marland, the Tory party Treasurer, and Lady Cobham, the partner of the former Conservative Cabinet minister David Mellor. Both of these were nominated by an independent body.

The reason giving for not appointing either of the candidates? “Neither quite demonstrated the full range of criteria for the post.” Errrr so how did they get past the nomination process then, to be the final two? Surely if that was the case, they would have been eliminated early on?

This comes after five Labour supporters were appointed to the BLF. Obviously the chairman of English Heritage can’t be appointed until a Labour supporter is one of the final two.

More scaremongering

Sir Ian Blair has joined the Government in attempting to raise our fears of a terrorist attack over the Christmas period. He has said the UK is facing an increasing threat of a terrorist attack.

This comes just weeks after Home Secretary John Reid said a similar thing. My guess is this is being said so that were something to happen, those responsible for preventing it, can say we told you! Some reassurance.

Sir Blair has said there was “no specific intelligence” of a new attack but there was an “ever present” chance. This whole line from the Government and the Met really is getting quite boring now. The scaremongering tactic this Government has adopted to try and justify its legislation really drops to the lowest level.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Treasury errors make it difficult for the BoE

Well, after all Gordon Brown’s ranting about how successful a Chancellor he has been and how well he has run the Treasury, it turns out the Treasury has been making it very difficult for the Bank of England.


The BoE is responsible for setting interest rates which help to keep inflation under control. It’s my belief that it is the good job the BoE has done, that has lead to much of the success and stability of the economy over the past 9 years.


But a report out today says the Treasury’s over rated forecasts for economic growth have not helped the BoE do its job. The Treasury’s response to this, "fiscal and economic forecasting is complex". I’m sure it took the most intelligent people in the Treasury to come up with that!


As the BoE has done such a good job with interest rates, prehaps forecasting should be devolved to them as well.

No. 10 Perverting the course of justice?

An article in Today’s Times suggests the CPS is pushing for No. 10 to be investigated for perverting the course of justice.


The most interesting part states,


“it does not matter whether or not the act results in a perversion of the course of justice: the offence is committed when acts tending and intended to pervert a course of justice are done”.


I just hope the article is true.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

The state of New Labour

New Labour appears to be in an absolute mess at this current moment in time. One I will be very surprised if they ever fully recover from.


To start off it now appears that evidence exists which contradicts Blair’s defence in the Cash for Peerages investigation. The Independent on Sunday is reporting that the nomination papers show donors were nominated for public service, not for their work for the Labour Party, as Blair claimed in his interview.


Added to this is the report in the Sunday Telegraph which suggests Blair is refusing to support Lord Levy. Essentially this means Blair is trying to put all of the blame onto Lord Levy in the hope Blair can exonerate himself. This could all get very messy if Lord Levy refuses to play along.


To finish off is the report in the Mail on Sunday which claims to of received a leaked memo which spells out that “Labour has no chance of winning the next Election because voters think the Government is a shambles”.


It makes very grim reading for Labour but especially Gordon Brown, as it claims No. 10 considered bypassing him in favour of a younger candidate. This suggests No. 10 are behind the leaking of the memo. Iain Dale believes Philip Gould is the one who wrote it.


Of course No. 10 has denied all knowledge, in true New Labour form.


Although we don’t need a memo to work out what a shambles the Government is in.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

The point of democracy?

It seems to me that “democracy in the Middle East” is somewhat pointless.


When the West calls for “democracy in the Middle East”, what they actually mean is “the party we want in power”.


Take for example Palestine. The West had been calling on Palestine to hold democratic elections to form a Government for years, which they did in January this year. The fact that Hamas was elected (which took the West by surprise) was a kick in the teeth for the West and frankly created a problem.


On the one hand they had to defend the democratic process whilst on the other condemning the result it had produced.


So what do you do when left with a problem like this. Well you do your best to destabilise the regime which has been elected. First, cut off aid to the Palestinians, leaving them with a financial crisis. Then blame the regime for everything that happens in the region, such as the Hezbollah attacks on Israel. After that ensure the regime destroys itself through fighting with its opposition party Fatah, which is led by the President of Palestine. Finally you get the Palestinian President to call for new elections in the hope the result you want is produced, a Fatah Government.


The Palestinian President has called for new elections in the hope it will solve the current tensions between Fatah and Hamas in Palestine, which is close to civil war. Of course the idea of early elections is bitterly contested by Hamas, which has never been allowed to operate its mandate it won last January.


Now Hamas’ refusal to recognise Israel is a problem to future peace in the Middle East. But I’ve purposefully ignored how to gain peace and just focused on the democratic side. By penalising the result of the January election is a clear undermining of the democratic process and refusal to recognise the wish of the Palestinian people who did the voting.


It just shows the West isn’t keen on true democracy, as when it happens, everything is done to change it.

Why we love the Inland Revenue!

Of course I am being sarcastic in the headline!


Apart from the fact they take our hard earned money, it is for reasons like this that the Inland Revenue (now called Customs and Revenue) is hated so much.


The Revenue has sent out millions of letters to people saying they have a gap in their tax payments that will affect their pensions. They are asked to pay £371 to correct this.


The problem is an unknown amount of these letters have been sent out in error! Of course this is being blamed on a glitch in the system.


You just got to love the Revenue!

Friday, December 15, 2006

The effects of alcohol

You would need to be very drunk to sleep through a train going past your head!

Thursday, December 14, 2006

New limits on Freedom Of Information

What a surprise that the Government was to limit the number of Freedom Of Information requests.


The Government currently answers all requests which cost less than £600. Currently this does not include officials time, yet reforms being considered by the Government would include officials time. This is bound to lead to a huge reduction in the number of Freedom Of Information requests which are answered.


Therefore a large amount of information which should be disclosed will continue to be hidden. The Government will be pleased as a number of requests have led to information being released which is embarrassing to the Government.


It’s quite amusing how much legislation this Government has itself introduced has turned out to be a nuisance to itself. The Freedom Of Information Act, The Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act, The Human Rights Act, I could go on…

How was Blair not questioned under caution?

Well, Tony Blair has finally been questioned in the Cash for Honours investigation, but only as a witness, not under caution. This means he is not considered a suspect!


I really fail to see how he cannot be classified as a suspect. Even if it was others who were offering the peerages in exchange for donations to the Labour Party, Blair has to make the nominations. Therefore Blair must be implicated? Is it really possible that others can tell Blair who to nominate and he doesn’t ask why?


We may never know how the Met reached the decision not to caution Blair, could they have lost their bottle?


It is hardly surprising that having let Blair chose when the interview took place, it happened on what must have been one of the busiest news days of the year.


Adam Bolton has a very good analysis of the Blair questioning on his blog.


UPDATE: The BBC is reporting that “notes” suggest Lord Levy offered Sir Christopher Evans “a K or a big P” in exchange for a donation. I wonder who leaked that information? Trying to shift the investigation away from Blair I wonder?

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Report suggests limit on Labour funding lifeline

Sir Hayden Phillips who is in charge of a review into party funding, is suggesting £50’000 limits on political party donations, including those from Trade Unions.


This is sure to be of huge concern to the Labour Party, who currently receive around £10.5 million a year from Trade Unions.


Of course the Government would have to endorse the proposals and put them into law, something I think they will be more than reluctant to do.


What is more likely to happen is that public funding of political parties should be introduced. We already know Labour are keen on this idea. So expect a donation tax to be introduced and the caps on Trade Unions to be ignored.


UPDATE: The BBC is now reporting Labour MP John McDonnell opposition to the idea. What a surprise considering he is a left-wing Labour MP. I'm not so sure about his belief Tony Blair supports the idea. Such is the concern over the suggestion that the Labour National Executive has called an emergency meeting for tomorrow.

Lib Dems build for the Olympics!

Liberal Democrat MP, Sandra Gidley, has labelled school sports days as an humiliation of those less able at sports.


Iain Dale is reporting the story that is in the Daily Echo.


It’s all well and good saying school sports days humiliate and put kids off of sport for life. But it’s also the way we find those who excel at sports.


She said: "I would ask that we try to get away from competitive sport in schools and think about increasing exercise and activity.


"Personal improvement initiatives are much more positive and inspiring for children than those in which their performance is compared with that of others."


This is ridiculous. If the competitive nature of sport is taken out of schools, how are we ever going to find our top sportspersons. Saying they should be replaced with “personal improvement initiatives” like “skipping, dance and games” is not going to help.


This is hardly a supportive gesture to make when the Olympics are 6 years away and we need to find and bring through the system are best sportspersons if we our to avoid total humiliation as a country in London 2012.

Monday, December 11, 2006

The failure of "education, education, education".

Remember the pledge on education Tony Blair made in 1997? “Education, education, education” were three words Tony Blair promised would be central to his new Labour Government.


But nine and a half years on what has the Labour Government really achieved on this three word pledge?


The answer makes very disappointing reading. 1.24 million people between the age of 15 and 24 are not in education, work or training. This is a 15% rise on the figures of 1997 when Labour came to power. In fact this is now such a big group that the Government has an acronym for them. NEETs: Not in Education, Employment or Training.


These figures come despite the billions of pounds Labour has poured into education over the years and into other programmes such as the New Deal. Clearly they have fallen far short of the success that has been made out. Yet again further proof that just throwing money at problems doesn’t solve them.

Carbon "credit cards!"

Environment Secretary, David Miliband has announced he is looking into the possibility of introducing carbon “credit cards”.


I can see so many holes in this idea, there’s just too many to list.


Each person would be given an annual allowance which things like travel, energy and food would count against. Therefore each item, bill and travel ticket would need labelling with its carbon credit level. This alone is a massive task.


Then there’s the actual system for implementing it. Will it tie in with the current chip and pin system or will need hardware need to be installed at checkouts.


Never mind the fact that people will have to remember to take their cards with them wherever they go.


Just as well a feasibility study has said many questions need to be answered. I wonder how much the study cost? I could of told them that for a competitive fee.

The Government and terrorism

It’s interesting that on Sunday John Reid continues Labour’s campaign of fear by stating a terrorist attack over the Christmas period is “highly likely” with around 30 plots in motion at any one time.


Then today Reid announces two terror suspects who went missing two and four months ago are still on the run.


No doubt we will hear next that 90 days detention without trial would solve all this.


Let’s hope it doesn’t turn out that one of the two in the second report isn’t responsible for what is claimed could happen in the first.

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Thursday, December 07, 2006

How to make sure you can't be wrong

The Government seems to of learnt at least one lesson from its past mistakes.


Instead of trying to predict how many migrants from EU countries will come to the UK, just don’t make any prediction at all.


The Government’s answer to ensure they don’t get it totally wrong again.

Unemployment to break 1 million

One thing Gordon Brown 'forgot' to mention that is contained within his Pre-Budget Report is the fact it shows unemployment will break the all significant 1 million marker next year.


The figure is contained in the Key Assumptions part of the Report.


Vince Cable Lib Dem Shadow Chancellor asked Gordon Brown to confirm the figure in the report. Brown’s reply, the Government doesn’t predict unemployment rates.


So that’s the reason why its labeled as an “assumption” then.


Perhaps the Treasury calls it an assumption because a prediction is more of an estimate whereas an assumption is “something taken for granted.”

Brown delivers his (last) Pre-Budget Report

So Gordon Brown has delivered his Pre-Budget Report. Not on the whole very exciting really.


There was the usual boosting about the UK’s continuing growth which will this year be 2.75%, above the Treasury’s prediction and Brown said the government's policies were responsible for low inflation, growing exports and increased investment. Although what Brown forgets to mention here, is the important role the Bank of England plays with its control over interest rates, which are central to the stability of the economy and controlling inflation.


In the Pre-Budget Report The Chancellor introduced an inflation increase on fuel duty of 1.25p per litre and announced a doubling of air passenger duty to £10.


Of course Brown will play that he has introduced these rises to help fight climate change. I’m more inclined to think that the hole created by the £2 billion short full in North Sea Oil Revenues needs plugging and this will do the job nicely.


Here are a selection of responses I have found on the Pre-Budget Report:


"With this PBR, like the nine PBRs before it, Britain is moving further from the direction we need to go. Today the chancellor had no new answers. He promised to change a gear, but all we got was more of the same." George Osborne – Conservative Shadow Chancellor


“The Chancellor’s legacy is one of high personal debt and massive spending commitments. Household debt has grown to a very dangerous level. British household debts are without precedent. Given that the next Chancellor will inherit a set of massively expensive commitments – the continuing war in Iraq, ID cars and now Trident – can he guarantee that in meeting these commitments he will not cut essential services, such as pensions, hospitals and policing?” Vince Cable – Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor


"Gordon Brown has a long way to go to gain any real green credentials, and his pre-Budget report will not even start him on the right road. This is gesture politics at its worst: he is trying to outflank the Tories on sounding green. What is the point in raising a tax on airline seats when his support for airport expansion will ensure the biggest growth in the aviation sector for a generation?" Sian Berry – The Green Party Principal Speaker


"I would give him probably one out of 10, maybe two out of 10. I think it's pretty feeble really. He's got a terrible record. For 10 years he's failed to provide a green budget. We thought in the wake of the Stern Review, given the new science demonstrating how bad climate change is, he's got to take action. And he's failed to do so again." Ed Matthews - Friends of the Earth


“The increase in duty has nothing to do with reinforcing the UK’s efforts to reduce its carbon footprint. Extra taxes of this type enhance the government’s reputation of helping itself to cash from road users.” Simon Chapman – Freight Transport Association’s chief economist


“Air Passenger Duty is an extremely blunt instrument that provides the Treasury with extra funds for general public expenditure without any benefit to the environment whatsoever.” British Airways


"A successful economy depends on being able to move goods, services and people across the country. Increasing aviation and fuel taxes will not help small business to increase productivity." Federation of Small Business


Not a very popular report then!

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

After Lottery funding?

If you are after lottery funding, then what’s the best way of securing it?


Not many organisations will have the same advantage as the Labour Government now has.


The new board of the Big Lottery Fund now has five committed Labour supporters. The BLF board is responsible for distributing National Lottery money, around £630 million a year.


Remember how the Government was defeated by the Lords over the powers Minister’s had to influence how Lottery money was distributed. Seems the Government has found its way around that one!


I wonder, could the National Lottery bail out the Labour Party?

The return of back to basics!

David Cameron has said education should focus on the basic core subjects of English, maths, science, history and modern languages.


Remember the last time the Conservatives tried going “back to basics”. Although so far the focus has only been on the basics of education.


It would have to be quite a spectacular failure to be any worse than John Major’s attempt at back to basics though.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

£100k a year for MPs?

The Times today is reporting that MPs have written to the Senior Salaries Review Body (SSRB) calling for MPs salaries to be increased to similar levels with GPs and council chief executives.


This would put MPs salaries around the £100’000 a year mark. Is this plain greediness from MPs or a fair reward for the work they do?


We are just talking about backbench MPs here, who currently earn £60,277. MPs who have a position, such as Ministers and Shadow Ministers earn more depending on their position.


£60k to £100k is some increase, in fact it’s a 66% rise. The average wage increase at the moment is around 4.5%.

Any increase in MPs salaries is likely to be unpopular amongst the general public given the way politicians are currently viewed at the moment.


But are MPs underpaid? In my view £60k a year is on the low side and £100k too high for a backbencher. £75k seems a more reasonable salary.

Income tax cut?

An article in today’s People claims Gordon Brown will cut income tax by 2p when he becomes Prime Minister.


The article says Brown would reduce income tax within 12 months of becoming PM. It’s certainly a good platform to go into an election on and is sure to still the thunder away from the Conservatives and Lib Dems. To maximise the benefit of this an October 2007 General Election would be ideal.


The tax cut would be funded by putting an extra 1p on fuel and an extra £5 on air passenger tax. Sounds very much like the Lib Dems Green Tax Switch.


If this article is correct, the days of opposition parties attacking Brown as the big tax riser will be gone, as he will no doubt claim he is returning the benefits of those rises to the people.


Wednesday’s Pre-Budget report will be studied hard looking for clues as to Brown’s intentions.


Blair went into the 1997 election promising to freeze income tax levels. Brown may well go into the next election promising to reduce them!

Saturday, December 02, 2006

What were they doing?

Police have spent six hours outside an empty house due to reports a man was being held hostage.


I have to wonder what they were doing for the six hours?


Does it really take that long to work out a house is empty?

Exactly what I said...

After my post yesterday, David Cameron has told the Daily Telegraph that his party has to "change to reflect changes to British society" or face another election defeat.


Exactly what I was saying.

Friday, December 01, 2006

Passport control?

It appears £250 is all you need if you want to get into the UK.


A BBC journalist for the BBC’s Panorama has managed to enter the UK twice on fake and stolen passports.


The first of which the reporter managed to get in London by responding to an advert in a Russian language newspaper.


Something like this can’t even be prevented by the introduction of new biometric passports. That will make it much more difficult for UK passports to be faked, but unless they are introduced in every country, nothing much will change.


People wanting to enter the UK illegally will get hold of a passport from another country and just stroll right in, it appears.


Panorama: My Fake Passports and Me will be broadcast on Monday, 4 December, 2006 at 2100 GMT on BBC One.

New is the old Old

New Labour has been branded old by First Minister Rhodri Morgan.


This is no surprise really as politics and the centre ground that New Labour was built on has shifted in the 12 years since New Labour’s creation in 1994.


First Minister Morgan has suggested that New Labour will die when Tony Blair leaves Downing Street. However this needs to happen for Labour to remain attractive to the voters. Political parties have to recognise and move with the mood of the electorate. Hence Cameron’s reinvention of the Conservatives.


Tony Blair was a master of this. Whether his successor, most likely Gordon Brown is as good, we will have to see.

Insane bank charges

The Consumer Action Group today protested outside the Office For Fair Trading, calling for them to investigate bank charges imposed on customers who go overdrawn without permission.


This is a campaign that I fully support and if you have incurred bank charges, claim them back using the step by step guide in the CAG forums. My best friend incurred £90 of charges for going as little overdrawn as 18p. Between the two of us and using the guide on the website, we managed to claim back £60 of them, so it does work.


There is no justification for these charges other than to make the banks extra money at the expense of the consumer. Ok so there needs to be some sort of deterrent to deter people from just going overdrawn, but the idea of charging someone for going overdrawn, which puts them further overdrawn makes no sense at all.


Having said that, had better go check the bank balances!

Bring on 1st July 2007

The Government has finally announced that smoking in enclosed public places will be banned from 1st July 2007.


I can’t wait for this day to arrive. I’m a huge supporter of the smoking ban.


There’s nothing worse than being in a smoke filled room, breathing in and smelling of someone else’s smoke on a night out.