2007 General Election?

Could there be a General Election in 2007? (A very simplified version of what needs to happen!)

Technically the answer is yes. The PM has the power to call a General Election whenever they want. But what’s the likelihood of one being called in 2007, only two years after the last one? There are two crucial factors that have to play out in order for this to happen.

The first factor is the timing of Blair’s departure, as Blair is not going to call an election before he stands down, which we know will be before this time next year. So it will be down to his predecessor to chose the timing of the next election. From when Blair steps down it is likely to take two months for Labour to elect a new leader and they are likely to want a couple of months to settle in as PM before calling an election. There is then four weeks of campaigning before the election is held. This in total is five months, so Blair has to be out between now and July for there to be a possibility of a 2007 General Election.

If that happens the second factor of Blair’s replacement comes in. The favourite is Gordon Brown who is much more likely to want an election. The reason for this? To give himself a fresh mandate to govern, meaning he isn’t relying on Blair’s. However should a Blairite candidate win, they will be happy to govern on Blair’s mandate, meaning no election.

So what’s the likelihood? I will be amazed if Blair makes it even as long as next July, so factor one should be passed. Brown is by far the favourite to replace Blair and even though I think any leadership contest will be close I feel Brown will win. Therefore a General Election in 2007 looks quite possible.

You’ve all been warned!