Happy New Year

Happy New Year everyone. Lets hope it's a good one for us and an interesting one to blog about.

Faltering Lib Dems

Christmas 2006 has not been a good one for the Liberal Democrats. This week they have scored 15% and 14% in the polls, which when entered into Electoral Calculus gives the Lib Dems just 6 seats.

Added to this is the defection of three Lib Dem PPCs at the 2005 General Election to the Conservatives.

These show the Lib Dems need to act if they are to even hold their seats at a General Election, let alone make any gains.

Now I don’t believe they will be reduced to as little as 6 seats, but the question has to be asked of the leadership and the direction the Lib Dems are heading. It has been well publicised that they are planning for a snap election to be called, yet Campbell just doesn’t seem up to the challenge.

I think the Lib Dems made a mistake when they elected Campbell as their leader, as at a time when Labour and the Conservatives have relatively young leaders in Blair (soon to be Brown) and Cameron, the Lib Dems went the other way and chose an older leader. For me, Campbell just doesn’t fit in with this age of politics. To win votes the leader of a party needs charisma and to come across well on TV. Campbell just doesn’t have this which is being reflected in the polls and through the defections that have occurred.

So could Campbell serve a shorter term as leader of the Lib Dems than Duncan Smith did as leader of the Conservatives. This would require Campbell going before May 2008 (Duncan Smith served two years, two months). Of course this would depend on any General Election and its result occurring during this period. But let’s take it there is no General Election as was the case with Duncan Smith. I can’t see the party ousting Campbell within this time, even if things look bad for any upcoming General Election. There’s two reasons for this. The first being the level of support Campbell has from fellow Lib Dem MPs. After the way Kennedy was removed, it would take someone very brave to try and remove Campbell in the same way. The other reason is that the Lib Dem MPs would have to admit they got it wrong backing Campbell as their leader. As we know, it takes a lot for MPs to admit they were wrong.

So for the Lib Dems the new year does look bleak. It will take something for Campbell to turn his party around for the election that could be not far away. I just don’t think he can do it.

No solution, other than more money!

The Government has come up with a new solution for tackling anti-social behaviour. It’s going to through money at problem areas.

You would of thought that after the lack of improvement in education and the NHS, which the Government has thrown money at, it would of realised money isn’t the solution to everything.

Obviously it appears not. Local councils are bidding to become one of the forty new “respect areas”. The name itself tells you this is nothing more than another New Labour gimmick. What does a respect area mean? If you go to one you’re likely to receive no respect, perhaps?

Well I suppose it will be easy to recognise where not to go, by its “respect area” status!

New "cash for" enquiry?

It seems Labour is trying its best to ensure the Conservatives are brought under the “cash for” light of sleaze.

Several Conservative MPs, including Shadow Cabinet members, have been reported to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards over their use of House of Commons dining rooms by two Labour MPs.

The rules state that dining rooms cannot be used for "direct financial or material gain" by parties, sponsors, or any person or group.

Whether Conservative MPs have been breaking the rules or not will be for any inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner to decide. It will be interesting of course to find out if any similar activities have been undertaken by Labour MPs.

I very much doubt hiring out dining rooms raises as much cash as selling peerages though.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas everyone. Hope it's a good one for you all.

Too Tory for Jowell

Tess Jowell, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sports has vetoed both of the candidates for Chairman of English Heritage.

The nominations were Lord Marland, the Tory party Treasurer, and Lady Cobham, the partner of the former Conservative Cabinet minister David Mellor. Both of these were nominated by an independent body.

The reason giving for not appointing either of the candidates? “Neither quite demonstrated the full range of criteria for the post.” Errrr so how did they get past the nomination process then, to be the final two? Surely if that was the case, they would have been eliminated early on?

This comes after five Labour supporters were appointed to the BLF. Obviously the chairman of English Heritage can’t be appointed until a Labour supporter is one of the final two.

More scaremongering

Sir Ian Blair has joined the Government in attempting to raise our fears of a terrorist attack over the Christmas period. He has said the UK is facing an increasing threat of a terrorist attack.

This comes just weeks after Home Secretary John Reid said a similar thing. My guess is this is being said so that were something to happen, those responsible for preventing it, can say we told you! Some reassurance.

Sir Blair has said there was “no specific intelligence” of a new attack but there was an “ever present” chance. This whole line from the Government and the Met really is getting quite boring now. The scaremongering tactic this Government has adopted to try and justify its legislation really drops to the lowest level.

Treasury errors make it difficult for the BoE

Well, after all Gordon Brown’s ranting about how successful a Chancellor he has been and how well he has run the Treasury, it turns out the Treasury has been making it very difficult for the Bank of England.

The BoE is responsible for setting interest rates which help to keep inflation under control. It’s my belief that it is the good job the BoE has done, that has lead to much of the success and stability of the economy over the past 9 years.

But a report out today says the Treasury’s over rated forecasts for economic growth have not helped the BoE do its job. The Treasury’s response to this, "fiscal and economic forecasting is complex". I’m sure it took the most intelligent people in the Treasury to come up with that!

As the BoE has done such a good job with interest rates, prehaps forecasting should be devolved to them as well.

No. 10 Perverting the course of justice?

An article in Today’s Times suggests the CPS is pushing for No. 10 to be investigated for perverting the course of justice.

The most interesting part states,

“it does not matter whether or not the act results in a perversion of the course of justice: the offence is committed when acts tending and intended to pervert a course of justice are done”.

I just hope the article is true.

The state of New Labour

New Labour appears to be in an absolute mess at this current moment in time. One I will be very surprised if they ever fully recover from.

To start off it now appears that evidence exists which contradicts Blair’s defence in the Cash for Peerages investigation. The Independent on Sunday is reporting that the nomination papers show donors were nominated for public service, not for their work for the Labour Party, as Blair claimed in his interview.

Added to this is the report in the Sunday Telegraph which suggests Blair is refusing to support Lord Levy. Essentially this means Blair is trying to put all of the blame onto Lord Levy in the hope Blair can exonerate himself. This could all get very messy if Lord Levy refuses to play along.

To finish off is the report in the Mail on Sunday which claims to of received a leaked memo which spells out that “Labour has no chance of winning the next Election because voters think the Government is a shambles”.

It makes very grim reading for Labour but especially Gordon Brown, as it claims No. 10 considered bypassing him in favour of a younger candidate. This suggests No. 10 are behind the leaking of the memo. Iain Dale believes Philip Gould is the one who wrote it.

Of course No. 10 has denied all knowledge, in true New Labour form.

Although we don’t need a memo to work out what a shambles the Government is in.

The point of democracy?

It seems to me that “democracy in the Middle East” is somewhat pointless.

When the West calls for “democracy in the Middle East”, what they actually mean is “the party we want in power”.

Take for example Palestine. The West had been calling on Palestine to hold democratic elections to form a Government for years, which they did in January this year. The fact that Hamas was elected (which took the West by surprise) was a kick in the teeth for the West and frankly created a problem.

On the one hand they had to defend the democratic process whilst on the other condemning the result it had produced.

So what do you do when left with a problem like this. Well you do your best to destabilise the regime which has been elected. First, cut off aid to the Palestinians, leaving them with a financial crisis. Then blame the regime for everything that happens in the region, such as the Hezbollah attacks on Israel. After that ensure the regime destroys itself through fighting with its opposition party Fatah, which is led by the President of Palestine. Finally you get the Palestinian President to call for new elections in the hope the result you want is produced, a Fatah Government.

The Palestinian President has called for new elections in the hope it will solve the current tensions between Fatah and Hamas in Palestine, which is close to civil war. Of course the idea of early elections is bitterly contested by Hamas, which has never been allowed to operate its mandate it won last January.

Now Hamas’ refusal to recognise Israel is a problem to future peace in the Middle East. But I’ve purposefully ignored how to gain peace and just focused on the democratic side. By penalising the result of the January election is a clear undermining of the democratic process and refusal to recognise the wish of the Palestinian people who did the voting.

It just shows the West isn’t keen on true democracy, as when it happens, everything is done to change it.

Why we love the Inland Revenue!

Of course I am being sarcastic in the headline!

Apart from the fact they take our hard earned money, it is for reasons like this that the Inland Revenue (now called Customs and Revenue) is hated so much.

The Revenue has sent out millions of letters to people saying they have a gap in their tax payments that will affect their pensions. They are asked to pay £371 to correct this.

The problem is an unknown amount of these letters have been sent out in error! Of course this is being blamed on a glitch in the system.

You just got to love the Revenue!

The effects of alcohol

You would need to be very drunk to sleep through a train going past your head!

New limits on Freedom Of Information

What a surprise that the Government was to limit the number of Freedom Of Information requests.

The Government currently answers all requests which cost less than £600. Currently this does not include officials time, yet reforms being considered by the Government would include officials time. This is bound to lead to a huge reduction in the number of Freedom Of Information requests which are answered.

Therefore a large amount of information which should be disclosed will continue to be hidden. The Government will be pleased as a number of requests have led to information being released which is embarrassing to the Government.

It’s quite amusing how much legislation this Government has itself introduced has turned out to be a nuisance to itself. The Freedom Of Information Act, The Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act, The Human Rights Act, I could go on…

How was Blair not questioned under caution?

Well, Tony Blair has finally been questioned in the Cash for Honours investigation, but only as a witness, not under caution. This means he is not considered a suspect!

I really fail to see how he cannot be classified as a suspect. Even if it was others who were offering the peerages in exchange for donations to the Labour Party, Blair has to make the nominations. Therefore Blair must be implicated? Is it really possible that others can tell Blair who to nominate and he doesn’t ask why?

We may never know how the Met reached the decision not to caution Blair, could they have lost their bottle?

It is hardly surprising that having let Blair chose when the interview took place, it happened on what must have been one of the busiest news days of the year.

Adam Bolton has a very good analysis of the Blair questioning on his blog.

UPDATE: The BBC is reporting that “notes” suggest Lord Levy offered Sir Christopher Evans “a K or a big P” in exchange for a donation. I wonder who leaked that information? Trying to shift the investigation away from Blair I wonder?

Report suggests limit on Labour funding lifeline

Sir Hayden Phillips who is in charge of a review into party funding, is suggesting £50’000 limits on political party donations, including those from Trade Unions.

This is sure to be of huge concern to the Labour Party, who currently receive around £10.5 million a year from Trade Unions.

Of course the Government would have to endorse the proposals and put them into law, something I think they will be more than reluctant to do.

What is more likely to happen is that public funding of political parties should be introduced. We already know Labour are keen on this idea. So expect a donation tax to be introduced and the caps on Trade Unions to be ignored.

UPDATE: The BBC is now reporting Labour MP John McDonnell opposition to the idea. What a surprise considering he is a left-wing Labour MP. I'm not so sure about his belief Tony Blair supports the idea. Such is the concern over the suggestion that the Labour National Executive has called an emergency meeting for tomorrow.

Lib Dems build for the Olympics!

Liberal Democrat MP, Sandra Gidley, has labelled school sports days as an humiliation of those less able at sports.

Iain Dale is reporting the story that is in the Daily Echo.

It’s all well and good saying school sports days humiliate and put kids off of sport for life. But it’s also the way we find those who excel at sports.

She said: "I would ask that we try to get away from competitive sport in schools and think about increasing exercise and activity.

"Personal improvement initiatives are much more positive and inspiring for children than those in which their performance is compared with that of others."

This is ridiculous. If the competitive nature of sport is taken out of schools, how are we ever going to find our top sportspersons. Saying they should be replaced with “personal improvement initiatives” like “skipping, dance and games” is not going to help.

This is hardly a supportive gesture to make when the Olympics are 6 years away and we need to find and bring through the system are best sportspersons if we our to avoid total humiliation as a country in London 2012.

The failure of "education, education, education".

Remember the pledge on education Tony Blair made in 1997? “Education, education, education” were three words Tony Blair promised would be central to his new Labour Government.

But nine and a half years on what has the Labour Government really achieved on this three word pledge?

The answer makes very disappointing reading. 1.24 million people between the age of 15 and 24 are not in education, work or training. This is a 15% rise on the figures of 1997 when Labour came to power. In fact this is now such a big group that the Government has an acronym for them. NEETs: Not in Education, Employment or Training.

These figures come despite the billions of pounds Labour has poured into education over the years and into other programmes such as the New Deal. Clearly they have fallen far short of the success that has been made out. Yet again further proof that just throwing money at problems doesn’t solve them.

Carbon "credit cards!"

Environment Secretary, David Miliband has announced he is looking into the possibility of introducing carbon “credit cards”.

I can see so many holes in this idea, there’s just too many to list.

Each person would be given an annual allowance which things like travel, energy and food would count against. Therefore each item, bill and travel ticket would need labelling with its carbon credit level. This alone is a massive task.

Then there’s the actual system for implementing it. Will it tie in with the current chip and pin system or will need hardware need to be installed at checkouts.

Never mind the fact that people will have to remember to take their cards with them wherever they go.

Just as well a feasibility study has said many questions need to be answered. I wonder how much the study cost? I could of told them that for a competitive fee.

The Government and terrorism

It’s interesting that on Sunday John Reid continues Labour’s campaign of fear by stating a terrorist attack over the Christmas period is “highly likely” with around 30 plots in motion at any one time.

Then today Reid announces two terror suspects who went missing two and four months ago are still on the run.

No doubt we will hear next that 90 days detention without trial would solve all this.

Let’s hope it doesn’t turn out that one of the two in the second report isn’t responsible for what is claimed could happen in the first.